As we settle into the new decade, I have one New Year's wish for employee benefit brokers: Stop worrying about the fallout from health care reform in Washington and focus on market changes that we can expect to significantly alter the employee benefit distribution model over the next three to five years. Yes, we will have some form of health care reform, but brokers will be just fine based on the proposed rules. Nonetheless, the future does not look all that promising for many in the industry.

We all know that the rising cost of health care is a significant issue for employers and employees. It will continue to dominate the headlines until both employers and their brokers proactively change their approach to dealing with rising costs. Having specialized in the employee benefit market for the past 15 years - each year working with 30 to 40 benefit brokers on how to proactively grow their agencies - I believe we are now at a crossroads for many employee benefit brokers. This crossroads is dominated by "old-school" brokers who are perpetuating legacy business models. Their approach is based on some common traits:

•  continue business as usual and wait until the market goes back to "normal;"

•  they believe that differentiation comes from "great" service, technology and old-fashioned relationship building;

• they focus on "spreadsheeting" and cost-shifting; and

• they focus on short-term results and ignore the system's underlying problems.

At the other side of the crossroads is the "new-school" broker who understands that the world is changing as it relates to the delivery of employee benefit services and that they need to be ahead of the curve. Common traits for the new-school broker include:

• a focus on innovation and long-term implications to truly reduce health care costs;

• expanding service capabilities to include actuarial services, data analytics and claims analysis;

• integrating processes to incorporate wellness programs and disease management; and

• reorganizing the sales and service model to focus on different skill sets to address market challenges.

My belief is that the crossroads is dominated by old-school brokers who will become irrelevant in the market.

The old-school strategic course of action is to "milk the cow," and ultimately they will see their revenues and profits continue to drop until they finally just disappear. Alternatively, some will play a "wait and see" game as it relates to selling their firms, and before they know it, the market will have passed them by and they will ultimately sell at a significant discount.

The new-school brokers recognize that change is already here. To remain relevant, their strategic course of action is to focus on innovation. They're grappling with the question of how to provide a fully integrated set of products and services that will ultimately reduce health care costs for employers and employees. They know it involves changing attitudes of employers and behaviors of employees so that employees are held accountable for making better decisions that improve their own health. In the end, this is the only way to reduce costs and generate savings. Alternatively, some new-school brokers recognize that, while they understand what is needed to prosper in the future, they cannot do it themselves. These agencies are selling to larger, better capitalized firms who can help them succeed down the road. These agencies are selling at a premium.

I truly hope that all employee benefit agencies understand that the future is going to bring significant change to the distribution system. Forward-looking brokers need to either provide those integrated services or align themselves with firms that can offer what employers will want.

More and more employers will be adopting a consumerism approach. They understand that a healthier work force not only reduces costs but improves absenteeism, productivity and efficiency - which ultimately improves their bottom line. The successful brokers of the future will be the ones that can provide the innovative, integrated health management services and products that ultimately address the root cause of rising health care costs: the unhealthy consumer. These brokers will thrive and prosper, at the expense of the old-school broker, who will disappear. Are you up for the challenge?